ANN ARBOR, MI – In a rapid response to the dire shortage of intravenous (IV) fluid bags currently affecting hospitals nationwide, investigators from the University of Michigan (U-M) Max Harry Weil Institute for Critical Care Research and Innovation and U-M Precision Health have developed a projection model to help U-M Health leadership make critical and timely decisions around conservation of crucial medical supplies. 

“This was a wonderful example of a multidisciplinary team of clinical stakeholders, supply chain specialists, administrators, and data scientists coming together to answer an operational challenge,” said Hitinder Gurm, MD, Chief Medical Officer of U-M Health, Park Willis III Collegiate Professor of Cardiovascular Medicine, and Weil Institute member. “It shows the potential for us to answer important questions in a timely manner for the benefit of our patients.”

The model uses data on product orders gathered from the University of Michigan Medical Center, U-M Health Sparrow, and U-M Health West to forecast potential supply shortages in both the short and long term. The model also provides insight into how soon a product will run out as well as the resupply amount that will be needed to achieve a specified buffer. 

A Data Science Solution for a National Crisis

Following the devastation of Hurricane Helene, Baxter International Inc., the nation’s largest supplier of IV fluids and dialysis solutions, was forced to temporarily halt production and distribution at its plant in North Cove, North Carolina. As a result, healthcare systems across the United States, including U-M Health, began taking immediate measures to identify and reduce their use of IV fluid bags and other Baxter products that were at risk of running out. 

Dr. Gurm and leadership in Supply Chain Services recognized the potential for data to guide a timely and proactive response to the ongoing shortage and sent out a call to rally specialists across the University. As part of this institution-wide effort, Brahmajee Nallamothu, MD, Co-Director of U-M Precision Health, Professor of Cardiovascular Diseases, and a member of the Weil Institute, reached out to Weil’s Data Science Team to see if they could lend their expertise. 

“This was an urgent, yet complicated, situation involving different volumes of fluid bags and a high potential of risk to our patients,” said Dr. Nallamothu. “We knew that if we could have access to even a modest model of how to use these resources more effectively, it would be incredibly impactful.”

Weil Institute data scientists Connor O’Brien and Brittany Baur, PhD, led by Weil Institute’s Director of Data Science and Research Assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine Sardar Ansari, PhD, immediately rose to the challenge. Within 24 hours of the initial meeting with U-M Precision Health, they had worked together with Supply Chain Services to connect and synthesize data on product ordering and utilization from across U-M Health’s three main sites and had developed the initial version of their projection model. The team then conducted daily refinements to the model which were made possible, in large part, thanks to data quality enhancements being conducted simultaneously by teams across the health system. 

“I am always reminded in times of crisis how the University of Michigan is such a special place,” said Dana Habers, MBA, Chief Innovation Officer at U-M Health. “We work amongst some of the most gifted and intelligent individuals, but what makes us so powerfully capable is our culture where we all love to come together around a common purpose and tackle challenges as a team!”

 I am always reminded in times of crisis how the University of Michigan is such a special place. We work amongst some of the most gifted and intelligent individuals, but what makes us so powerfully capable is our culture where we all love to come together around a common purpose and tackle challenges as a team!

Dana Habers, MBA
Chief Innovation Officer, U-M Health

Building for Future Shortages

As of October 15, the Weil Institute has handed administration of the model over to a team led by Amy Cohn, PhD, AB, Chief Transformation Officer at Michigan Medicine and Alfred F. Thurnau Professor of Industrial and Operations Engineering. Dr. Cohn’s team is working with other teams in Health Information Technology & Services (HITS) to operationalize the code and improve its efficiency and reliability. Once the immediate IV fluid shortage is resolved, an additional goal will be to make the model customizable, enabling it to be integrated as a more long-term solution for potential shortages of different products from different manufacturers in the near future.

“While I am proud of the Weil Data Science Team, I am not the least bit surprised by their ability to rapidly respond to a crisis like this,” said Kevin Ward, MD, Executive Director of the Weil Institute and Professor of Emergency Medicine and Biomedical Engineering. “This team of talented professionals has an amazing ability to grasp the magnitude of a problem and use their unique data science expertise to offer innovative solutions.”

“I am so proud that the U-M Precision Health and Max Harry Weil Institute teams continue to demonstrate value by simultaneously generating high quality science that impacts healthcare in general, and by showing how you can practically apply to solve real-world problems,” said Prashant Mahajan, MD, MPH, MBA, William G. Barsan Collegiate Professor and Chair of Emergency Medicine, Professor of Pediatrics and Weil Institute member. “The Weil Institute continues to have impact when the world needed it urgently—from during the Covid-19 pandemic, where they developed interventions that were practical and pragmatic to save lives, to solving today's IV shortage issues.”

Project Team

Sardar Ansari, PhD (Director of Data Science, Weil Institute; Emergency Medicine); Brittany Baur, PhD (Weil Institute Data Science Team); Connor O’Brien (Weil Institute Data Science Team)

About the Weil Institute

The team at the Max Harry Weil Institute for Critical Care Research and Innovation (formerly the Michigan Center for Integrative Research in Critical Care) is dedicated to pushing the leading edge of research to develop new technologies and novel therapies for the most critically ill and injured patients. Through a unique formula of innovation, integration and entrepreneurship that was first imagined by Weil, their multi-disciplinary teams of health providers, basic scientists, engineers, data scientists, commercialization coaches, donors and industry partners are taking a boundless approach to re-imagining every aspect of critical care medicine. For more information, visit weilinstitute.med.umich.edu.

About U-M Precision Health

The Precision Health team is dedicated to empowering researchers at the University Michigan to change the future of digital healthcare. They work with multi-disciplinary teams of health providers, basic scientists, engineers, and administrators to tackle the most difficult research problems and help rapidly bring ideas to the bedside. For more information visit precisionhealth.umich.edu